2015 Q4 Review and Outlook: What Every Flying Machine Man Thinks
Sunday, January 3, 2016 at 05:33PM
Updated on Monday, January 4, 2016 at 02:11PM by
hb
Updated on Monday, January 4, 2016 at 02:13PM by
hb
Updated on Wednesday, January 13, 2016 at 07:33AM by
hb
Updated on Thursday, February 4, 2016 at 08:33AM by
hb
Updated on Thursday, February 4, 2016 at 08:33AM by
hb
“Monetary policy made itself ineffective with low interest rates, which were seen as a cure rather than a transitory painkiller.” - Nassim Taleb
Our economic view remains from last quarter’s. We anticipate a recession in the US with about a ~60-70% probability starting sometime in the next 6 to 24 months, assuming that we are not unknowingly in the front end of one now. Given the timing of the national elections, we do not anticipate any material reform of our wayward domestic policies. Political paralysis with essentially a sideways and weak GDP, say ~2%, seems our best case.
To the downside we see an increasing likelihood of a disruptive environment